http://michellemarieantellg.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/blackroses/
How did we get ourselves into this
predicament?
I am certain this is the feeling
that some of the Malaysian leaders in their security council are asking
themselves as they mull over their most immediate concern of securing the crash
site of MH17.
Tomorrow will mark the 10th
day since the Malaysian carrier met its end in the skies above a conflict zone
where not a single person onboard the flight was a stakeholder to the parties in
the conflict. Securing the crash site is vital in order to continue retrieving remnant
body parts of passengers; to prevent looters and tampering of the crash site; to
be able to carry out investigations into the cause of the plane crash; and to
ensure the safety of investigators on site. These seemingly simple tasks have
just gotten more difficult with the presence of armed rebels who have declared
control over the site.
The Malaysians have won my respect
with the successful negotiations with the separatist rebels that resulted in
the handing over of the black boxes and the first round retrieval of the bodies.
Such a negotiation exercise is unbelievably complicated with so many variables
to consider. Things can go very wrong. The fact that it was concluded so
quickly in such a short time without prior media knowledge shows the
decisiveness, courage and resolve of those involved in the negotiations.
However, all is not well. The
safety of investigators cannot be guaranteed with the presence of ill-disciplined,
armed men who belong to the organization that are potential suspects to the
crime. Body parts are still lying in the field. The longer the situation drags
on, the greater the opportunity for the geopolitical mess between all parties to
deteriorate. The Aussies are proposing a joint coalition force of armed Aussies,
Dutch and Malaysian police and military personnel to secure the crash site.
“They must be nuts,” says Joerg Forbig, senior
program officer for central and eastern Europe, German Marshall Fund – a think
tank based in Berlin (26 July 2014, Sydney Morning Herald).
Indeed, this idea of involving armed
representatives from countries aligned with the west is highly risky and possibly
unwise. Unless the governments involved have access to information that we do
not know, such a decision can lead to unwanted outcomes with global impact. Why
is this such a bad idea?
1) Raw
emotions – The Dutch, Malaysians and Aussies lost the most number of people on
the flight. The cover story is that regular police officers and token military
personnel are sent there. In reality, the personnel sent there are usually
highly trained individuals from the various special forces units. These are Type
A personalities who are highly patriotic and devoted to their cause to protect
their people. They will not be too impressed with the rebels and might be
tempted to act out of revenge.
2) Opportunity
to create blame – Should the rebels seek the upper hand in preparation for
subsequent rounds of negotiation, they can easily create an incident that will
make them look like the victim, especially if the coalition force is armed. For
instance, a rebel could deliberately fire a rifle into the sky to antagonize
the coalition. Instinctively, a coalition member fires back but hits a civilian
passerby, a child, instead. This creates distraction from the key issue at hand
– the investigation of the crash site; and gives the rebels the upper hand.
3) Aggressive
perception – Imagine for a moment, if you observed a convoy of trucks coming
your way. They stop to unload soldiers and police officers who are armed with
rifles. Get the picture? It certainly is intimidating, even if all of them
flashed smiles at you. The argument is for self-defence purposes - that if they
are armed, you have to be armed, if not more armed. This does not portray neutrality
in an already volatile situation. This shows aggression, something that is not
necessary.
With the inability to access the
information that is privy to the respective governments, we will have no idea
about how the decision making process was carried out. However, I would like to
offer a few suggestions – nothing earth shattering, but certainly worth
considering:
1) Involve
a United Nations peacekeeping force – Arms should not be used but observers
should wear body armour. The Russians must contribute influential personnel and
a sizable number to this team.
2) Get
assistance from a neutral country – This is not an easy option but a possible one
where a country that is deemed co-operative with Russia and the west can send
personnel to secure the crash site. Whether they are armed or not depends on
the type of agreement negotiated.
3) Get
privately contracted security personnel – This is not the most ideal option
when it comes to cost. However it does reduce the potential geopolitical
repercussions should things go wrong (if a paid security contractor is killed
accidentally, it is not perceived as inflammatory as when a Dutch or Aussie
soldier gets killed). The nationality of the mercenary does matter. As far as
possible, they should be obtained from Asia or South America so as to portray
neutrality. The gurkhas are a fine example of someone who should be hired for
this role. From a business point of view, I am for arming mercenaries as this
is a case of protecting one’s ‘business concern’ (it’s sad but true, money does
trump common sense). Pistols for self defence might be ideal in this case as it
defers to the AK-47 assault rifles the rebels are using.
I am reminded of how countries are
warned of future security threats that we will face in the near future. Threats
are expected to be irregular, catastrophic and disruptive. The MH17 crash in a
conflict zone can fall into the category of an irregular threat. Countries are
placing strong emphasis on funding, recruiting and training their military or
para-military special forces to deal with the many unknowns that the world will
encounter.
I am hopeful that this situation will
be resolved soon. Practically speaking, this looks like it will be a long drawn
affair that will be heavily politicised, with the threat of missteps from all
sides.