08 June 2008

What a mess

I had previously written about the price of oil crossing the US$100 per barrel mark.

Just yesterday, the price crossed the US$134 mark, fueled by Israel's comments on the need to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities (read this as 'in order to secure Iran's oil fields to make available to the world at large')

I was speaking to a friend not too long ago. He is well connected and was at a talk given by a global bank, on the effects of the rising price of crude oil on the rest of the world. Their prognosis was not good.

As the price of oil rises, governments will have to take certain unpopular measures for the greater good of the country. These measures, though unpopular in the short run, will be effective in the long run. However, people's emotions will run high. The poor will protest against such measures. Ruling parties will be ousted, giving way to parties who take advantage of emotions rather than good sense.

Eventually, some countries will use the excuse of energy sustainability to carry out invasions against others.

What a mess.

Is there any way to solve this? A conference in Japan 2 days ago sought to address this . However, I have a feeling it is too little too late.

Just look at Malaysia. The government suddenly announce increases at the petrol pumps of 41% overnight! Imagine the uproar and the political instability that is taking place there now?

To those who think that I am over reacting, just look at Indonesia's 2 former presidents. They were overthrown as a result of rising oil prices in the past.

History is waiting to repeat itself.

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